Red Corner
Alex Pereira "Poatan"
13-3-0 · 11 KO/TKO · 1 SUB loss · 0 SUB win
orthodox76" tall79" reachelite strikermoving up to HW
VS
Heavyweight (interim title) · 5 Rounds
UFC Freedom 250 · White House, Washington D.C. · Jun 14, 2026
6.5
Confidence / 10
Blue Corner
Ciryl Gane "Bon Gamin"
13-2-0 (1 NC) · 5 KO/TKO · 3 SUB win · 2 SUB loss
orthodox76" tall81" reachvolume kickboxercareer HW
01

Probabilistic Outcome

Result likelihoods from the predictive model — recency-weighted, calibrated against the recorded data. The numbers orient the camp; the tactical report explains them.

Win Probability
54%Alex Pereira
43%Ciryl Gane
◆ Draw / NC 3%·Moderate confidence · wide band given Pereira's first HW bout
— Alex Pereira · Method to Win
KO/TKO41%
Decision12%
Submission1%
— Ciryl Gane · Method to Win
Decision26%
KO/TKO14%
Submission3%
— Outcome Shape
Fight ends inside distance59%
Fight reaches the judges38%
Draw / No Contest3%
Round-of-Finish Distribution
24%
18%
9%
5%
3%
Round 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5
Alex Pereira finish Ciryl Gane finish Pereira's finishes cluster early-to-mid: Ankalaev R1, Hill R1, Prochazka R2, Strickland R1. Gane's wins skew later or to decision, so late-fight share tilts toward Gane's cardio if Pereira does not land first.
Confidence Breakdown — Why 6.5?
6.5
Confidence / 10
Moderate
Data depth (per-round stats)Rich on both — UFC bouts carry per-round splits
Both fighters have multiple recent UFC bouts with full per_round_stats; striking output and control time are directly measurable.
Common-opponent overlapLow — no shared opponents
Careers ran in different divisions; no direct common opponent to anchor a head-to-head read.
Division change (Pereira to HW)First recorded HW bout in the data
Every Pereira bout in the source is at 185/205; power-carrying and durability at true HW are projections, not observed.
RecencyBoth fought within the last 9 months
Pereira KO'd Ankalaev Oct 2025; Gane's last action was the Oct 2025 Aspinall NC — both reads are current.
02

Strengths & Weaknesses — This Matchup

Every technique scored against this opponent's recorded profile. Frequency, accuracy, success rate, and the delta vs the average opponent — plus a comparable precedent so you can verify it.

Alex Pereira — Profile

▲ Strengths · 3

Technique Freq Acc Success vs Style Δ vs Ciryl Gane avg
One-shot fight-ending power
Pereira closes the show in single exchanges — left hook on Hill, head kick on Prochazka, ground-and-pound on Ankalaev.
Precedent — First-round KO of Magomed Ankalaev (1:20) and first-round KO of Jamahal Hill (3:14) — both ended by one clean connection.
 11/13 KO80% (24/30) 4 KD bouts+1 KD/fight
Calf-kick and kicking arsenal
Pereira's lead-leg kicking compounds over rounds and can end fights outright, as the Prochazka head kick showed.
Precedent — KO of Jiri Prochazka by kick at 0:13 of round 2 at UFC 303.
 1 kick KO85% (11/13) 1/1 kick KO+ kick vol
Championship-round finishing under fire
Pereira can find the KO deep in a fight even when behind on cards, not just early.
Precedent — Fifth-round TKO of Israel Adesanya at UFC 281 to win the 185 title (2:01, R5).
 1 R5 KOwhile trailing KO at 2:01 R5+ R5 power

▼ Weaknesses · 2

Vulnerability Exposure Conceded Loss Pattern Δ vs Ciryl Gane avg
Beatable on volume and grappling pressure over 5
When a durable opponent survives early and pushes pace, Pereira can lose the decision.
Precedent — Unanimous-decision loss to Magomed Ankalaev at UFC 313 over 5 rounds; Pereira's output dipped to 7 sig strikes in round 4.
 7/12 sig R41 UD loss /5 L on cards− R4 output
Submission vulnerability on the mat
The only submission outcomes on Pereira's record are against him; grappling exchanges carry tap risk.
Precedent — Submission (rear-naked choke) loss to Quemuel Ottoni at Jungle Fight 82 (R3).
 1 SUB lossRNC, back tap if controlled− ground D
Ciryl Gane — Profile

▲ Strengths · 3

Technique Freq Acc Success vs Style Δ vs Alex Pereira avg
High-volume, high-accuracy striking over distance
Gane's footwork and combination output let him pile up significant strikes round after round.
Precedent — 51 and 58 significant strikes landed across two rounds in the TKO of Serghei Spivac.
 51 sig/rd~74% (51/69) 16→41→53+ volume
Five-round cardio and championship-distance experience
Gane has banked multiple 25-minute fights and keeps landing in deep waters.
Precedent — Unanimous-decision win over Alexander Volkov went the full five rounds with sustained output (42 sig in R3).
 multi 5-rd42 sig R3 2 full /5+ late cardio
Underrated submission game
Gane is not purely a kickboxer — he owns real finishes on the mat.
Precedent — Submission wins by heel hook (Don'Tale Mayes) and arm-triangle (Raphael Pessoa).
 3 SUB winstop + scramble 3 sub types+ sub threat

▼ Weaknesses · 2

Vulnerability Exposure Conceded Loss Pattern Δ vs Alex Pereira avg
Folds under elite grappling and front-headlock pressure
When a dominant grappler closes distance and attacks the neck or controls, Gane has been finished.
Precedent — First-round guillotine submission loss to Jon Jones at UFC 285 (2:04).
 tap 2:04 R1guillotine L if out-grappled− scramble D
Can be out-willed and pressured into a decision loss
Against relentless physical pressure Gane's output thins and he can drop the cards.
Precedent — Unanimous-decision loss to Francis Ngannou at UFC 270; output dropped to 6–7 sig strikes in rounds 3 and 5 under pressure.
 6 sig R31 UD loss /5 pace dips backing up− output vs pressure
⚔

Strength-vs-Weakness Collision Points · 3

Alex Pereira Strength
One-shot KO power, 11 of 13 by KO/TKO
Ankalaev R1, Hill R1
⚔
Alex Pereira Edge
Ciryl Gane Weakness
Drops decisions to relentless power pressure
Ngannou UD loss
Ciryl Gane Strength
Volume striking and 5-round cardio
50+ sig vs Spivac, full distance vs Volkov
⚔
Ciryl Gane Edge
Alex Pereira Weakness
Output dips late, can lose the decision
Ankalaev 1 UD loss, 7 sig in R4
Ciryl Gane Weakness
Finished by neck attacks / elite grappling
Jones guillotine R1
⚔
Roughly Even
Alex Pereira Weakness
Limited offensive grappling; sub losses only on the mat
Ottoni RNC loss
03

Tactical Report — Paths to Victory

Paths per fighter: primary (highest model-weighted), alternate (secondary), fallback (if the primary fails). Each path is an ordered action sequence with the historical bout that validates it. The coach decides which to drill first.

RED

Alex Pereira — Paths to Victory

Path A · Primary
Counter the entry, land the left hook early
Model weight: Primary · ~45% of win equity
  1. Hold center, threaten the calf kickForce Gane to plant so the lead leg becomes a target like it did against pressure strikers.
  2. Time the combination entryGane steps in behind volume; meet the entry with the check left hook.
  3. Follow downed opponent immediatelyConvert the knockdown to a finish the way the Ankalaev elbows sequence closed in R1.
Validating precedent: First-round KO of Ankalaev via elbows after dropping him, and the one-punch KO of Hill — both off counter timing. Method outcome: Early KO/TKO
Path B · Alternate
Accumulate leg damage, then head kick
Model weight: Alternate · ~25% of win equity
  1. Chop the lead leg in rounds 1-2Compromise Gane's footwork, which is his primary defensive asset.
  2. Show the body, finish highSet the head kick off the same look that ended Prochazka.
Validating precedent: R2 kick KO of Prochazka after establishing kicking range. Method outcome: Mid-fight kick finish
Path C · Fallback
Bank rounds, hunt the late KO
Model weight: Fallback · ~12% of win equity
  1. Stay disciplined defensively if it's closeAvoid the Ankalaev-1 pattern where output cratered in R4.
  2. Press for the championship-round finishPereira retains power deep, as the R5 Adesanya KO proved.
Validating precedent: Fifth-round KO of Adesanya at UFC 281 after trailing. Method outcome: Late KO or close decision
BLUE

Ciryl Gane — Paths to Victory

Path A · Primary
Move, pile up volume, avoid the center-line counter
Model weight: Primary · ~40% of win equity
  1. Use lateral footwork off the cageDeny Pereira a stationary target for the left hook.
  2. Out-land in volume each roundReplicate the Spivac / Tuivasa output curve to win on cards.
  3. Stack rounds to force a decisionDrag the fight into championship rounds where cardio favors Gane.
Validating precedent: Escalating-volume TKO of Tuivasa (16→41→53 sig) and 50+ sig rounds vs Spivac. Method outcome: Decision win / late TKO
Path B · Alternate
Mix in takedowns and the neck
Model weight: Alternate · ~18% of win equity
  1. Threaten level changes to freeze the handsGane landed a takedown and 2 sub attempts on Volkov in the rematch.
  2. Attack the front headlock in scramblesPereira's only career submission outcome was a loss off back control.
Validating precedent: Takedown plus two sub attempts in R1 of the Volkov rematch; heel-hook and arm-triangle wins on record. Method outcome: Submission or control decision
Path C · Fallback
Survive the early storm, take over late
Model weight: Fallback · ~12% of win equity
  1. Weather rounds 1-2 behind the jabPereira's KO probability is highest early; deny the clean shot.
  2. Press output as Pereira's pace dipsExploit the late-round output drop seen in Ankalaev 1.
Validating precedent: Out-worked Volkov into the championship rounds at UFC Vegas 30. Method outcome: Come-from-behind decision
◎

Exploitation Plan — How Pereira's corner attacks Gane

Gane's losses share one signature: he is beaten when a fight is made physical and ugly, not when it stays a kickboxing match. Force the exchange.

Stage 1 — Range war
Rounds 1-2
Critical
Cut the cage, deny the dance

Gane wins by circling and out-touching. Pressure laterally and threaten the calf kick so he has to plant and trade in the pocket where the left hook lives.

▸ Gap targeted: Movement-dependent volume game
Stage 2 — Counter timing
On Gane's entries
High
Meet the combination with the check hook

Gane steps in behind multi-strike combinations. The same counter window that dropped Ankalaev and Hill is available the instant Gane commits forward.

▸ Gap targeted: Predictable forward entries
Stage 3 — Will imposition
Rounds 3-5 if no finish
Med
Make it a dogfight

Ngannou beat Gane by sheer physical pressure and forcing a grind. Keep the fight uncomfortable so Gane's output thins the way it did in rounds 3 and 5 against Ngannou.

▸ Gap targeted: Pace under sustained pressure
This is power-and-pressure versus movement-and-volume. Pereira's path is a clean early connection; Gane's path is footwork, accumulation, and dragging the contest into championship rounds where his cardio and HW experience compound. The swing factor is Pereira's first true heavyweight bout — his power has finished every level so far, but his late-round output cratered against Ankalaev, and Gane is built to make him pay for a slow round. ▸ Evidence: Pereira R1 KO of Ankalaev vs Gane 5-round win over Volkov
04

Combination & Sequence Intelligence

Top striking combos, strike-into-takedown setups, takedown chain patterns, submission setups — each tagged with frequency, completion rate, and the most common terminal outcome. Every row cites the recorded bouts behind it.

Finishing bursts
R-01
Calf kick→Left hook→Drop + elbows
RoundR1
Sig landed28/45
Finish time1:20
Ankalaev rematch: Pereira dropped Ankalaev and finished with elbows inside 90 seconds.
R-02
Feint→Counter left hook
RoundR1
Sig landed24/30
Accuracy80%
Hill KO: a single counter left hook ended it at 80% sig accuracy in the round.
Volume / late-round work
R-03
Jab→Body kick→Combination
RoundR4
Sig landed63/92
Knockdowns1
Rountree finish round: Pereira opened up for 63 significant strikes and a knockdown before the TKO.
Hand strike Leg / body kick Takedown / clinch Submission Opponent action / setup
Volume escalation
B-01
Jab→Lateral step→Volume combination
RoundR3
Sig landed53/72
FinishTKO 4:23
Tuivasa: output climbed 16→41→53 sig across rounds until the third-round TKO.
B-02
Pressure jab→Combination
RoundR1
Sig landed51/69
Accuracy74%
Spivac: 51 significant strikes in round one at 74% accuracy before the second-round finish.
Grappling threats
B-03
Level change→Control→Sub attempt
RoundR1
Control98s
Sub attempts2
Volkov rematch R1: takedown, 98 seconds of control and two submission attempts — Gane's grappling is live, not theoretical.
Hand strike Leg / body kick Takedown / clinch Submission Opponent action / setup
05

Training Camp Targets — Red Corner

Prep priorities for Alex Pereira's camp. Each target cross-references the sequence rows from the Sequence Intelligence tab so coaches can drill against the exact recorded patterns — not generic advice.

Drill Priorities · 4 Targets
Critical
Cage-cutting and pressure footwork

Drill cutting off lateral movement so Gane cannot circle and out-volume. Every loss in Gane's record comes when he is forced to fight stationary or grind.

B-01
Every round
Critical
Counter-timing on the entry

Rep the check left hook against a circling, combination-heavy partner. The KO windows that dropped Ankalaev and Hill open the instant Gane steps in.

R-02
High
High
Late-round output and conditioning

Condition to avoid the R4 collapse seen in the Ankalaev decision loss; Gane banks volume into the championship rounds.

B-01
Rounds 3-5
Med
Defensive grappling and neck safety

Sharpen guillotine and front-headlock defense. Gane's submission wins and the Jones guillotine show neck attacks live in HW scrambles.

B-03
As needed
Camp Time Allocation · Suggested Split
35%
Pressure footwork / cage-cutting
30%
Counter-striking timing
20%
Conditioning for 5 rounds
15%
Grappling & neck defense

Weighted toward forcing Gane to fight stationary — the single condition under which he has been beaten.

Not Enough Verified Data

This section was withheld rather than filled with guesses. No medical_suspensions are recorded for either fighter in the source data, so injury status cannot be reported honestly.

06

Evidence Panel

Every claim in this report traces back to here — recent form, style stats, comparable opponents, cited data points. Coaches should be able to check the work.

Alex Pereira — Recent Bouts
W
Magomed AnkalaevUFC 320
KO/TKOElbows, R1 1:20
L
Magomed AnkalaevUFC 313
DecisionUnanimous, R5
W
Khalil Rountree Jr.UFC 307
KO/TKOPunch, R4 4:32
W
Jiri ProchazkaUFC 303
KO/TKOKick, R2 0:13
W
Jamahal HillUFC 300
KO/TKOPunch, R1 3:14
Ciryl Gane — Recent Bouts
NC
Tom AspinallUFC 321
No ContestAccidental foul (CNC), R1 4:35
W
Alexander VolkovUFC 310
DecisionSplit, R3
W
Serghei SpivacUFC Fight Night
KO/TKOPunches, R2 3:44
L
Jon JonesUFC 285
SubmissionGuillotine, R1 2:04
W
Tai TuivasaUFC Fight Night
KO/TKOPunches, R3 4:23
Style Stat Comparison
StanceOrthodox · Orthodox
Height76 in · 76 in
Reach79 in · 81 in
Record13-3-0 · 13-2-0 (1 NC)
KO/TKO wins11 · 5
Submission wins0 · 3
Career divisionMW/LHW · HW
Comparable-Opponent Notes
Pressure-puncher templateNgannou beat Gane with relentless physical pressure over five rounds — the blueprint Pereira's power lets him copy.
Grappling-finish templateJones submitted Gane in one round once the fight was made a grappling match; neck attacks remain his clearest finishing risk.
Pereira's own decision-loss templateAnkalaev beat Pereira on volume over five rounds — exactly the kind of output war Gane is equipped to wage.
Data Completeness
70%

Per-round stats present on all recent UFC bouts for both fighters; gaps are older/regional bouts and Pereira's lack of any true-HW sample.

Cited Data Sources
ufcstats:0de1ef0b9f3a79c0Pereira KO of Ankalaev, UFC 320, 2025-10-04
ufcstats:9e05fe95a4fc63bcPereira UD loss to Ankalaev, UFC 313, 2025-03-08
ufcstats:8c5e06c71f392f33Pereira TKO of Rountree, UFC 307, 2024-10-05
ufcstats:6390c8e74630473eGane NC vs Aspinall, UFC 321, 2025-10-25
ufcstats:ea006bae605e2a6bGane TKO of Spivac, 2023-09-02
ufcstats:636fd144716a3084Gane SUB loss to Jones, UFC 285, 2023-03-04
ufcstats:e786542667fdecf0Gane UD loss to Ngannou, UFC 270, 2022-01-22
07

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Fight Mind · Confidential Scouting Report · Generated Jun 14, 2026 · v3 · schema 1 · Conf 6.5/10
Fight Mind — Combat Scouting Operating System

Every claim in this report cites recorded bout data. Sections without enough verified data say so.