Result likelihoods from the predictive model — recency-weighted, calibrated against the recorded data. The numbers orient the camp; the tactical report explains them.
Every technique scored against this opponent's recorded profile. Frequency, accuracy, success rate, and the delta vs the average opponent — plus a comparable precedent so you can verify it.
| Technique | Freq | Acc | Success vs Style | Δ vs Derrick Lewis avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Compounding striking volume
Hokit's output climbs deep into fights — he poured on 82 significant strikes in Round 3 alone against Curtis Blaydes, more than doubling his Round 1 figure.
Precedent — Sig strikes by round vs Blaydes: 41 → 54 → 82, a rising-pace decision over a credible gatekeeper.
|
Every bout | 60% sig | U-DEC | +41 R1→R3 |
|
One-punch finishing speed
When Hokit lands clean early he closes immediately — a 56-second KO of Max Gimenis off two knockdowns, and a sub-five-minute KO of Denzel Freeman.
Precedent — 2 knockdowns in 56 seconds to finish Gimenis; first-round KO of Freeman after a 227-second control burst.
|
3 of 4 early | 53% sig | KO/TKO | Finish < R2 |
|
Wrestling-led control
Hokit can put heavyweights on the mat and hold them — five takedowns and three minutes of control against Guilherme Uriel before the elbow finish.
Precedent — 5 takedowns landed and 180s control in R1 vs Uriel, then a R2 TKO via elbows; 227s control en route to the Freeman KO.
|
Every bout | 6 TDs / 2 bouts | Ctrl → fin | 180s ctrl R1 |
| Vulnerability | Exposure | Conceded | Loss Pattern | Δ vs Derrick Lewis avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Untested chin at elite HW
Hokit has never been hit by a finisher of Lewis's caliber; his unbeaten record means his recovery from a clean heavyweight bomb is unproven.
Precedent — 9-0 with no recorded knockdown suffered — durability against a one-shot KO artist is an open question, not a proven asset.
|
Unknown | 0 KDs logged | None on record | Untested |
|
Thin elite-level résumé
Outside the Blaydes decision, Hokit's wins came over regional and short-notice opposition; the UFC sample that backs the model is only four fights deep.
Precedent — Pre-UFC wins over Lunsford, Latu, Lopez carry no tracked per-round data and came on the regional circuit.
|
4 UFC bouts | No late-fight data | 0 losses | High variance |
| Technique | Freq | Acc | Success vs Style | Δ vs Josh Hokit avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Fight-ending one-shot power
Lewis ends nights with a single connection — a 35-second demolition of Tallison Teixeira and a 33-second blitz of Marcos Rogerio de Lima both came off one clean shot.
Precedent — R1 KO of Teixeira in 0:35 with a knockdown; R1 KO of de Lima in 0:33 with a knockdown — power that needs no setup.
|
Career-long | 2/2 KD | KO/TKO | Finish < 0:35 |
|
Late-round comeback KO threat
Lewis stays dangerous even when behind — he was losing to Rodrigo Nascimento before landing a Round 3 KO at 0:49.
Precedent — Down on output through two rounds, Lewis scored a R3 knockdown and KO of Nascimento; he carries the same equalizer late.
|
Recurring | R3 KD → KO | KO/TKO | KO @ 0:49 R3 |
| Vulnerability | Exposure | Conceded | Loss Pattern | Δ vs Josh Hokit avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Collapses against grappling
Lewis has been submitted repeatedly when controlled — an arm-triangle loss to Serghei Spivac and a rear-naked choke loss to Daniel Cormier define the blueprint.
Precedent — SUB loss (arm-triangle) to Spivac in R1; SUB loss (RNC) to Cormier in R2; out-grappled over five rounds by Jailton Almeida.
|
Held down | 2 SUB + 1 ctrl L | Grappled → L | 3 of 3 L |
|
Anemic volume and gas tank
Lewis throws almost nothing across a full fight — just 8 significant strikes landed over two rounds in the Cortes-Acosta loss, and he fades sharply after early bursts.
Precedent — Only 4 + 4 sig strikes landed in R1/R2 of the Cortes-Acosta KO loss; shut out across five rounds by Almeida.
|
Low output | 8 sig / 2 rds | No KO → L | 4 sig/rd |
|
Chin erosion late in career
At 41 Lewis is increasingly stoppable — recent KO losses to Cortes-Acosta and Sergei Pavlovich show diminishing recovery.
Precedent — KO/TKO loss to Cortes-Acosta (Jan 2026) and a 55-second KO loss to Pavlovich; durability is trending down with age.
|
Stoppable | 2 recent KO L | Pressured → KO'd | Age 41 ↓ |
Paths per fighter: primary (highest model-weighted), alternate (secondary), fallback (if the primary fails). Each path is an ordered action sequence with the historical bout that validates it. The coach decides which to drill first.
Lewis's losses cluster around two failures — getting controlled on the mat and getting out-worked when the KO doesn't land. Hokit's wrestling-and-volume profile attacks both at once.
Lewis's entire danger is front-loaded one-shot power; Hokit must use feints and footwork to avoid the clean counter before settling in.
▸ Gap targeted: Power is binary — neutralize the opening windowLewis has been submitted by Spivac and Cormier and shut out by Almeida when held down. Hokit's reactive double and top control directly exploit this.
▸ Gap targeted: Grappling defense and scramble cardioLewis lands single-digit significant strikes when he can't finish; Hokit's output climbs each round. Bank the clock and hunt the late TKO as Lewis empties.
▸ Gap targeted: Cardio and sustained outputTop striking combos, strike-into-takedown setups, takedown chain patterns, submission setups — each tagged with frequency, completion rate, and the most common terminal outcome. Every row cites the recorded bouts behind it.
Prep priorities for Josh Hokit's camp. Each target cross-references the sequence rows from the Sequence Intelligence tab so coaches can drill against the exact recorded patterns — not generic advice.
Rehearse a measured opening two minutes — feints, footwork, no flat-footed pocket trades — to take Lewis's one-shot KO window off the table.
B-1 / B-2Sharpen the level-change off Lewis's power and drill stacking top control; Lewis gets submitted or shut out the moment he is held down.
R-1 / R-2Build the gas to raise pace each round the way Hokit did against Blaydes; force Lewis into the deep water where his output and chin both fail.
R-4Lewis has tapped to arm-triangle and RNC; rep the transition from top control to the back so any turtle or scramble becomes a finish.
R-1Weighted toward the grappling-and-volume game plan that attacks Lewis's two proven failure modes, with a hard floor of defensive drilling against his early KO threat.
This section was withheld rather than filled with guesses. No medical suspension records are present in either fighter's source data (medical_suspensions is empty for both Josh Hokit and Derrick Lewis), so no injury rows can be honestly populated.
Every claim in this report traces back to here — recent form, style stats, comparable opponents, cited data points. Coaches should be able to check the work.
Per-round stats present on 4 of Hokit's bouts and 6 of Lewis's; older Lewis bouts and Hokit's regional wins carry result-level data only. No medical-suspension data for either fighter.
Annotate the report and share it with the camp staff. Notes stay attached to this matchup version.
Every claim in this report cites recorded bout data. Sections without enough verified data say so.