Result likelihoods from the predictive model — recency-weighted, calibrated against the recorded data.
The numbers orient the camp; the tactical report explains them.
Win Probability
60%Mauricio Ruffy
38%Michael Chandler
◆ Draw / NC 2%·Moderate confidence — wide band given Chandler's wrestling and one-shot power
— Mauricio Ruffy · Method to Win
KO/TKO42%
Decision13%
Submission5%
— Michael Chandler · Method to Win
KO/TKO20%
Decision11%
Submission7%
— Outcome Shape
Ruffy by stoppage42%
Ruffy by decision18%
Chandler by stoppage27%
Chandler by decision11%
Draw / NC2%
Round-of-Finish Distribution
30%
24%
15%
R1R2R3
Mauricio Ruffy finishMichael Chandler finishBoth men are first-half finishers: nine of Ruffy's twelve KO/TKO wins ended in rounds one or two, and Chandler's recent finishes and KO losses have all clustered early. This is a three-round fight with a high chance it never reaches the scorecards.
Confidence Breakdown — Why 6.5?
6.5
Confidence / 10
Moderate
Sample depthDeep on Chandler, thinner on Ruffy
Chandler carries 30+ documented bouts; Ruffy's UFC stat-logged sample is only six fights, the rest regional with no per-round data.
Style clarityClear contrast
Ruffy is a rangy KO striker; Chandler is an explosive wrestle-boxer. The grappling-vs-striking axis is well documented for both.
Variance / powerHigh
Chandler's one-shot power and takedown explosiveness, plus Ruffy's lone submission loss, widen the outcome band against the favorite.
02
Strengths & Weaknesses — This Matchup
Every technique scored against this opponent's recorded profile.
Frequency, accuracy, success rate, and the delta vs the average opponent —
plus a comparable precedent so you can verify it.
Mauricio Ruffy — Profile
▲ Strengths · 2
Technique
Freq
Acc
Success vs Style
Δ vs Michael Chandler avg
Elite knockout finishing across phases
Ruffy ends fights with hands and kicks; he has scored a knockdown in nearly every recent UFC stoppage and finishes in either round.
Precedent — KO'd Rafael Fiziev in R2 (knockdown), head-kick KO of King Green in R1, and dropped/finished Jamie Mullarkey with punches in R1.
12 KO/13 W
37 sig R2
KD 3 of 4
↑ vs UFC
Output that builds and ramps late in a round
When a fight extends, Ruffy raises his volume rather than fading, stacking significant strikes into the later round.
Precedent — Poured on 45 sig strikes in R3 to finish Raimond Magomedaliev, and landed 24 and 22 in rounds 2-3 of the Llontop decision.
20+ sig/rd
45 sig R3
R3 TKO
↑ into R3
▼ Weaknesses · 2
Vulnerability
Exposure
Conceded
Loss Pattern
Δ vs Michael Chandler avg
Grappling defense exposed on the mat
Ruffy's lone UFC loss came when he was controlled and submitted, and he offered almost nothing offensively once the fight left the feet.
Precedent — Submitted by Benoit Saint Denis via rear-naked choke in R2 after landing only 1 and 4 sig strikes across two low-output rounds.
1 SUB loss
5 sig total
collapses grounded
thin sample
Has been knocked out earlier in his career
Ruffy's chin is not bulletproof; a clean shot has put him away before against a puncher.
Precedent — KO'd by Manoel Sousa via punches in R2 on the Brazilian regional circuit.
1 KO loss
KO'd R2
1-shot risk
risk vs power
Michael Chandler — Profile
▲ Strengths · 2
Technique
Freq
Acc
Success vs Style
Δ vs Mauricio Ruffy avg
Explosive level-changing wrestling
Chandler can shoot from distance and rack up control time, the clearest route to neutralize a striker.
Precedent — Landed four takedowns and amassed 130s of control in R1 alone against Paddy Pimblett; secured multiple takedowns and 274s of control vs Dustin Poirier.
4 TD vs Paddy
164s ctrl
274s/rd
↑ TD threat
One-shot knockout power
Chandler can end a fight with a single strike and has highlight finishes against elite competition.
Precedent — Front-kick / follow-up KO of Tony Ferguson in R2 (knockdown) and a first-round KO of Dan Hooker with a knockdown.
2 KD finishes
17/24 sig
2 KO wins
↑ at 155
▼ Weaknesses · 2
Vulnerability
Exposure
Conceded
Loss Pattern
Δ vs Mauricio Ruffy avg
Fading durability — KO'd repeatedly of late
Chandler's all-action style and 40-year-old chin have produced a string of stoppage losses, several of them late in fights he started fast.
Precedent — TKO'd by elbows in R3 by Paddy Pimblett despite a strong start, and KO'd in R2 by Charles Oliveira after winning R1.
1-4 last 5
1 sig in R3
fades, stopped
↓ durability
Submission-vulnerable when chasing the finish
Chandler's aggression has left him caught in chokes when he overextends late.
Precedent — Submitted by Dustin Poirier via rear-naked choke in R3 after spending the round chasing the knockout.
Multi SUB L
tapped R3
caught chasing
late-fight lapse
⚔
Strength-vs-Weakness Collision Points · 3
Mauricio Ruffy Strength
Knockout power in early exchanges
KO'd Fiziev, Green, Mullarkey
⚔
Mauricio Ruffy Edge
Michael Chandler Weakness
Fading chin, KO'd repeatedly of late
Stopped by Pimblett & Oliveira
Michael Chandler Strength
Explosive takedowns + control
4 TDs, 130s control vs Pimblett
⚔
Michael Chandler Edge
Mauricio Ruffy Weakness
Output collapses when grappled
Submitted by Saint Denis
Mauricio Ruffy Strength
Late-round volume surge
45 sig in R3 to finish Magomedaliev
⚔
Mauricio Ruffy Edge
Michael Chandler Weakness
Gasses and gets stopped late
Finished R3 by Pimblett after fast start
03
Tactical Report — Paths to Victory
Paths per fighter: primary (highest model-weighted), alternate (secondary), fallback
(if the primary fails). Each path is an ordered action sequence with the historical bout that
validates it. The coach decides which to drill first.
RED
Mauricio Ruffy — Paths to Victory
Path A · Primary
Keep it standing and target the fading chin
Model weight: Most likely path
Win the range battleUse the 75-inch reach and lateral movement to stay off the cage and force Chandler to lunge into kicks and counters.
Punish the over-commitWhen Chandler loads the overhand or shoots from distance, meet him with the counter that has dropped opponents — the look that KO'd Fiziev and Green.
Validating precedent: KO'd Fiziev in R2 with a knockdown and head-kick KO'd King Green in R1, both off clean counters at range.Method outcome: KO/TKO inside two rounds
Path B · Alternate
Drag Chandler into deep water and surge
Model weight: Secondary
Survive the early stormDefend the first-round takedown attempts and weather Chandler's fastest five minutes without giving up the finish.
Ramp the volume lateLean on the round-three surge that finished Magomedaliev as Chandler's output historically collapses in later rounds.
Validating precedent: Stacked 45 sig strikes in R3 to finish Magomedaliev and stayed at 20+ sig per round across the Llontop decision.Method outcome: Late TKO or decision
BLUE
Michael Chandler — Paths to Victory
Path A · Primary
Takedown-and-control to nullify the striker
Model weight: Best route
Change levels earlyGet Ruffy to the mat in round one while the legs are fresh — the exact phase where Ruffy's offense disappeared against Saint Denis.
Bank control timeReplicate the 130s+ of round-one control from the Pimblett fight to steal rounds and grind the striker.
Validating precedent: Landed four takedowns and 130s of R1 control vs Pimblett and amassed 274s of control in a round against Poirier.Method outcome: Decision or ground TKO
Path B · Alternate
One-shot power in the pocket
Model weight: Live puncher's chance
Force the firefightClose distance and make Ruffy trade, where a single Chandler shot can flip the fight.
Hunt the dropped opponentFollow any stagger to the finish, the way he closed on Ferguson and Hooker.
Validating precedent: KO'd Tony Ferguson in R2 and KO'd Dan Hooker in R1, both with a knockdown leading to the stoppage.Method outcome: KO/TKO any round
◎
Exploitation Plan — Exploiting Chandler for the Ruffy camp
Chandler's recent defeats share a pattern: he starts fast, fades, and gets finished — and his power can flip any second. The Ruffy plan is to deny the takedown, survive the opening burst, and let the chin do the rest.
Stage 1
Round 1
Critical
Stuff the early takedown
Chandler's whole game opens with the level change. Keep the fight standing in round one — Ruffy's only real loss came the moment he was controlled on the mat, so takedown defense is survival.
▸ Gap targeted: Ruffy's grappling-defense gap vs Chandler's wrestling
Stage 2
Rounds 1-2
High
Counter the over-commit
When Chandler lunges with the overhand or telegraphs a shot, meet him with the counter right and kicks that dropped Fiziev and Green. His chin has been cracked repeatedly of late.
▸ Gap targeted: Chandler's declining durability
Stage 3
Round 3
Med
Break him in the championship-pace third
If it goes long, push the pace. Chandler faded to a single significant strike in the round Pimblett finished him, while Ruffy's output climbs late — turn the third into a surge.
▸ Gap targeted: Chandler's late-round gas tank
This is a finisher-vs-finisher matchup over three rounds with a clear fork: if Ruffy keeps it standing, his reach, ramping volume and knockout power attack the exact thing — a fading chin — that has produced Chandler's recent stoppage losses. If Chandler lands the early takedown, he attacks Ruffy's one proven flaw, the grappling collapse that cost him against Saint Denis. Expect Chandler to gamble on a fast start and a takedown or a one-shot; the longer the fight stays vertical and the deeper it goes, the more it tilts toward the younger, fresher striker.
▸ Evidence: Based on both fighters' recent UFC stat-logged bouts
04
Combination & Sequence Intelligence
Top striking combos, strike-into-takedown setups, takedown chain patterns, submission
setups — each tagged with frequency, completion rate, and the most common terminal outcome.
Every row cites the recorded bouts behind it.
Counter-striking knockouts
R-1
Feint→Range counter→Knockdown finish
Round2
Sig landed37/60
ResultKO 4:30
Raised output to 37 sig in R2, scored the knockdown and finished Fiziev with punches.
R-2
Setup→Head kick
Round1
Knockdown1
ResultKO 2:07
Landed a clean kick for a first-round knockdown and head-kick KO of King Green.
Late-round volume surge
R-3
Pressure→Combination→TKO finish
Round3
Sig landed45/69
ResultTKO 4:45
Ramped to 45 sig strikes in the third round to break and finish Raimond Magomedaliev.
Hand strikeLeg / body kickTakedown / clinchSubmissionOpponent action / setup
Takedown + control
B-1
Level change→Takedown→Top control
Round1
TDs2
Control130s
Landed two takedowns and held 130s of control in R1 against Pimblett before fading.
B-2
Level change→Takedown→Extended control
Round2
Control274s
ResultLost via SUB
Dominated control time (274s in R2) against Poirier before being submitted in R3.
One-shot knockouts
B-3
Pressure→Power shot→Knockdown finish
Round1
Knockdown1
ResultKO 2:30
Dropped Dan Hooker with a clean shot and finished inside round one.
Hand strikeLeg / body kickTakedown / clinchSubmissionOpponent action / setup
05
Training Camp Targets — Red Corner
Prep priorities for Mauricio Ruffy's camp. Each target cross-references the sequence
rows from the Sequence Intelligence tab so coaches can drill against the exact recorded patterns —
not generic advice.
Drill Priorities · 3 Targets
Critical
Sharpen takedown defense and scrambles
Chandler's clearest path is the early level change. Drill stuffing the shot, wall-walking, and immediate stand-ups so the fight never sits where Ruffy was finished by Saint Denis.
B-1
4 takedowns / 130s+ control vs Pimblett
High
Counter the lunge with the fight-ender
Build striking around timing Chandler's over-committed overhand and blast double. The counter right and head kick that dropped Fiziev and Green target Chandler's declining chin.
R-1
Knockdown in 3 of last 4 stat-logged wins
Med
Bank the third-round surge
Condition to outwork Chandler late. His output cratered in the round Pimblett finished him, while Ruffy's volume climbs — make the third a closing storm.
R-3
45 sig in finishing R3 vs Magomedaliev
Camp Time Allocation · Suggested Split
40%
Takedown defense & scrambles
30%
Counter-striking off the lunge
20%
Cardio & third-round surge
10%
Chin protection in the pocket
Weighting reflects that Chandler's only reliable advantage is wrestling, while his fading durability and late-round gas are the levers Ruffy can most directly exploit.
Not Enough Verified Data
This section was withheld rather than filled with guesses. Neither fighter has medical_suspensions data in the source files; no injury rows can be cited.
06
Evidence Panel
Every claim in this report traces back to here — recent form, style stats, comparable
opponents, cited data points. Coaches should be able to check the work.
Mauricio Ruffy — Recent Bouts
W
Rafael FizievUFC 325
KO/TKOPunches, R2 4:30
L
Benoit Saint DenisUFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho
SUBRear-naked choke, R2 2:56
W
King GreenUFC 313
KO/TKOKick, R1 2:07
W
James LlontopUFC 309
U-DEC3 rounds
W
Jamie MullarkeyUFC 301
KO/TKOPunches, R1 4:42
Michael Chandler — Recent Bouts
L
Paddy PimblettUFC 314
KO/TKOElbows, R3 3:07
L
Charles OliveiraUFC 309
U-DEC5 rounds
L
Dustin PoirierUFC 281
SUBRear-naked choke, R3 2:00
W
Tony FergusonUFC 274
KO/TKOKick, R2 0:17
L
Justin GaethjeUFC 268
U-DEC3 rounds
Style Stat Comparison
Record13-2-0 · 23-10-0
Finish rate (wins)12/13 (92%) · High, but 1-4 in last five
KO/TKO wins12 · Many (career-long)
Career losses2 (1 KO, 1 SUB) · 10 (7 by stoppage)
Height / Reach71" / 75" · 68" / 71"
StanceOrthodox · Orthodox
Age29 · 40
Comparable-Opponent Notes
Reach & age edge — RuffyRuffy holds a four-inch reach advantage (75" vs 71") and is roughly a decade younger, a meaningful gap given Chandler's declining durability across his recent stoppage losses.
Shared grappling flaw — both tapped to RNCBoth men have been finished by the rear-naked choke when controlled — Ruffy by Saint Denis and Chandler by Poirier — underscoring that whoever wins the grappling exchanges controls the fight.
Data Completeness
62%
Per-round stats available for recent UFC bouts on both fighters; Ruffy's pre-UFC regional fights and Chandler's Bellator era lack round-level data.